Australia’s Indigenous population faced massive losses after colonization
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Researchers in Australia determined the Indigenous population was far larger before European arrival in 1788 than previously believed, and suffered catastrophic losses following colonization.
A national research group, working with Indigenous partners, used computer modeling alongside ethnographic observations, archaeological data, and genetic reconstructions to estimate the pre-colonial population. They calculated a median pre-colonial Indigenous population of 2.22 million people, a figure up to seven times higher than earlier estimates that did not fully account for disease and violence.
The team then used this new estimate to calculate the scale of deaths following the arrival of the First Fleet. Their model showed 2.06 million excess deaths occurred between 1788 and 1861, leaving only about 7% of the original population by 1861. Although the Indigenous population has grown since the 1950s, the 2021 census shows it remains at approximately 37% of the estimated pre-colonial size.
Researchers project that, at the current rate of growth, the Indigenous population will not reach its 1788 size until around 2047. The findings underscore the lasting impacts of colonization and the need for policies that address intergenerational trauma and privilege.
