Homicide rates fall in US, driven by community programs
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Nearly 50 crime scholars convened by the Council on Criminal Justice examined why homicide rates decreased across the United States.
In 2025, the national murder and nonnegligent manslaughter rate dropped 18.1% compared to 2024, reaching a rate of about four killings per 100,000 people. This rate matched the lowest level recorded since the FBI began collecting national estimates in 1955 and 1956.
Researchers assessed 48 possible explanations for this decline between 2022 and 2026, and found the strongest support for community violence intervention programs. Ninety-one percent of scholars rated these programs, which work directly with people at high risk of violence, as contributing to the decrease. The easing of pandemic-related disruptions and focused deterrence strategies, combining law enforcement with social services, also received high marks from the experts.
The study noted that the decline occurred in cities with different approaches to public safety, complicating efforts to attribute the drop to a single cause. While increased local government capacity to provide social services and more proactive policing also received support, scholars largely dismissed the impact of factors like increased pretrial detention or immigration enforcement. The council cautioned that their ratings reflect professional judgements and do not prove causation, but can help guide future policy decisions.
