Australia’s First Peoples: new research reveals higher pre-invasion population
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Researchers in Australia estimate that more than two million Indigenous people lived in Australia in 1788, before widespread European colonization, challenging previous figures that placed the population around 300,000.
The team arrived at this number by combining archaeological data, genetic analysis, and environmental modelling, avoiding reliance on colonial-era records which were known to be incomplete and biased.
These earlier records often only counted people visible to colonial authorities, such as those receiving rations or living on missions, and excluded many of mixed ancestry. The new research indicates a massive population decline following the arrival of Europeans. The scientists estimate that over 90% of the Indigenous population died within 70 years of the 1788 invasion, due to introduced diseases like smallpox, measles, and influenza, as well as frontier violence and the disruption of traditional ways of life.
A major smallpox epidemic in 1789 alone may have killed as many as 220,000 people in southeastern Australia. This revised understanding of the pre-invasion population and subsequent losses has significant implications for how Australians understand their history. It reshapes the conversation around terra nullius, the false claim that the land was uninhabited, and underscores the scale of the trauma experienced by Indigenous communities.
Researchers hope acknowledging the true population size will support Indigenous-led land management and reconciliation efforts, as well as strengthen the imperative for shared decision-making in policy affecting Indigenous peoples.
